Influenzanet is a system to monitor the activity of influenza-like-illness (ILI) with the aid of volunteers via the internet
Developing the framework for an epidemic forecast infrastructure.
http://www.epiwork.eu/
The Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) bundles all research-related EU initiatives.
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4444In contrast with the traditional system of sentinel networks of mainly primary care physicians coordinated by the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS), InfluenzaNet obtains its data directly from the population. This creates a fast and flexible monitoring system whose uniformity allows for direct comparison of ILI rates between countries.
Any resident of a country where InfluenzaNet is implemented can participate by completing an online application form, which contains various medical, geographic and behavioural questions. Participants are reminded weekly to report any symptoms they have experienced since their last visit. The incidence of ILI is determined on the basis of a uniform case definition.
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Counterplague
Counterplague is a simple epidemic model that involves chance.
Click START to begin the game, then NEXT to advance the game one step at a time or RUN to run the model all the way through.
Developed by Jitka Holcova and Mike Pearson (www.motivate.maths.org)
What's happening?
Can you work out how the game works?
The game simulates an infectious disease spreading in a class at school. Every person in the class has an infection status:
The green faces are people who are susceptible to being infected with the disease.
The red faces are people who are infectious and can transmit the disease to others.
The blue faces are people who cannot be infected because they have recovered from the disease and are immune.
The starting conditions are set on the lefthand side. You can change the numbers of people in each infection state by double-clicking on the number next to a face.
>> try double-clicking on the number 29 next to the green face and changing the number of susceptible people to 40, then click START.
At each time step, each infectious person picks a number between 1 and 6 (perhaps by rolling a die). The numbers on the lefthand side determine how many susceptible people each infectious person will infect. In the default settings, if they roll a 1 they infect people, if they roll a 2, 3 or 4 they infect 1 person, and if they roll a 5 or 6 they infect 2 people.
>> try changing the number of people infected when a 6 is rolled by double clicking on the 2 and changing it to 5. Click START then RUN. How does this change the epidemic?
Challenge the model
- Is the model realistic enough?
- How might a real epidemic be different?
- What other things should the model include?
Want to explore further?
The disease modelling group and the outreach team in Cambridge University's maths department, have devised a series of games and activities to help explain the spread of infections. Click here to see what's on offer.
