Influenzanet is a system to monitor the activity of influenza-like-illness (ILI) with the aid of volunteers via the internet
Developing the framework for an epidemic forecast infrastructure.
http://www.epiwork.eu/
The Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) bundles all research-related EU initiatives.
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4444In contrast with the traditional system of sentinel networks of mainly primary care physicians coordinated by the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS), InfluenzaNet obtains its data directly from the population. This creates a fast and flexible monitoring system whose uniformity allows for direct comparison of ILI rates between countries.
Any resident of a country where InfluenzaNet is implemented can participate by completing an online application form, which contains various medical, geographic and behavioural questions. Participants are reminded weekly to report any symptoms they have experienced since their last visit. The incidence of ILI is determined on the basis of a uniform case definition.
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Social contact patterns
Coughs and sneezes spread diseases
Flu is transmitted through small droplets created when an infectious person coughs or sneezes, therefore flu is mostly transmitted between people in close contact. The pattern of contacts in the population is important factor in predicting how the epidemic spread.
Joining the dots
We ask flusurvey users about their symptoms and their social contacts. The aim is to use information about social mixing patterns to help predict and explain epidemic behaviour. Below, we've plotted a measure of how the epidemic grew (i.e. how much it changed from week to week) against the average number of socialcontacts each person reported in that week.
When using adults' contact behaviour there is no clear trend, but contacts reported by children (aged 18 and under) give a much clearer picture - when children made few contacts the epidemic declined, but when they made many contacts it grew. Children reported many fewer contacts during school holidays, which explains why patterns of school terms had such a strong influence on the pandemic.
What the graphs show: each red dot shows one week's data. The blue line is the 'best fit' to these dots; the grey region shows the uncertainty surrounding this best fit line - on the left, we can't be certain that the line slopes downwards, but on the right we can be fairly sure that there is a positive connection.
