On 14th June 2009 the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global pandemic of swine flu. Cases worldwide peaked in the autumn, but are now at low levels in most of the world. The WHO reports that the pandemic has been responsible for at least 16,931 deaths.

The UK was one of the first countries to have confirmed cases outside North America. The update below gives a summary of the situation in the UK, Europe, and the rest of the world. For an overview of the pandemic, click here to read our swine flu review of 2009.

See the epidemic in action: click on the image below to try our latest interactive graph:

Click on the image on the right to see some nifty graphics produced by the WHO showing the impact of the pandemic around the world.

There have been 457 deaths due to swine flu reported in the UK. The figure below shows the Health Protection Agency's estimated number of new cases each week in England. Against expectations, the autumn peak was not noticeably higher than that in the summer, suggesting that by September there was enough immunity in the population to slow the spread of infection.

As more information became available, estimated case numbers were revised but, aside from right at the start of the epidemic, the original predictions were pretty accurate.

Swine Flu in Europe Swine flu was widespread throughout Europe, with cases confirmed in all countries. The epidemic appeared to happen at different speeds in different countries, in general moving Eastwards. The map on the right shows the mortality over the course of the pandemic in each European country (Map taken from the ECDC).

Comparing reported cases between countries is not straight forward because different countries have different testing regimes. Number of deaths might be a more reliable way to assess the pandemic's impact. As the figure below shows, the number of deaths reported each week in Europe has stopped increasing; the wobble around New Year is probably a result of changes in reporting over the Christmas period (figure taken from the ECDC).

   

Some caution should be exercised, however: deaths tend to be related to cases from several weeks previously, so are not the best way of estimating the current number of cases. However, they provide a way to assess the overall impact of the epidemic. The ECDC reports a total 2839 deaths in Europe as of Week 12, 2010.

The figure below shows the total number of deaths in Europe. Click on the image to be taken to the interactive graph.     

We can see how the pandemic has evoloved over time by looking at the 6 worst-hit European countries (below). The UK epidemic took off relatively early, with those in Germany and Poland lagging some way behind.

Global update

As of 21st March 2010 the WHO reported 16,931 deaths globally. Official bodies have now stopped reporting numbers of confirmed cases globally, as these represent an increasingly small tip of the iceberg in many countries (the last figure given, at the end of August, was of about a quarter of a million, but this says more about surveillance and reporting than it does about infection). Even the reported number of deaths, though more useful, is likely to be a gross underestimate of the true number of swine flu fatalities.

The picture below shows the current swine flu status around the world - red shows countries where transmission is widespread, orange regional, and pale yellow localised.